Zeitenende: Germany's People's Parties

In the local branches of the SPD and the CDU the chairs have emptied, while in Berlin their majorities still hold and their ministries stay staffed. The state governs, the economy performs, and measured trust in institutions holds on average. What tore is the binding, the sense of being represented. CDU/CSU and SPD reached 36.9 percent of all eligible voters in 2025, against 61.7 percent in 1998. In 2026 polls over 40 percent back the AfD, Die Linke or the BSW, in the east around half or more.

Both people’s parties vacated the edges of their own following. Under Gerhard Schröder the SPD moved to the centre and gave up its left flank, where the WASG, Die Linke and later the BSW stepped in. Under Angela Merkel the CDU/CSU did the same on the right, on the euro in 2013 and on migration in 2015, and the AfD took the flank. Under Olaf Scholz the material cushion that had masked the erosion for two decades fell away. Each move won elections in its day. The second half of the finding: the people’s parties lose the competition over meaning because they do not enter it. They treat it as a matter of morals and answer with protection and regulation.

In four eastern states the AfD alone holds over a third of the seats, enough to block decisions that need two thirds. In Magdeburg and Schwerin the centre reaches a majority without the AfD only with votes from the same bloc. The gap closes under one condition: an offer that answers every question of representation and holds over time.