Non-State

As of 18 October 2026. In Gaza the armed groups keep their weapons, in the West Bank settler violence runs at levels the UN calls unprecedented, and in Europe states keep naming the hand behind hired attacks. Hamas dissolved its government on 6 July and kept its arms. At the end of July it said it would begin disarming under a deal that requires Israel to withdraw, and it ties the surrender of its heavy weapons to Palestinian statehood. In May Israeli air strikes killed the commander of its Qassam Brigades and, two weeks later, the man reported to have succeeded him. On 2 October Washington sanctioned a Hamas operative in Gaza and a network in France that, by the Treasury's account, used sham charities and cryptocurrency to raise nearly 2 million dollars.

The UN documented 630 settler attacks with casualties or damage between mid-June and mid-September, and 49 Palestinian communities have been driven out entirely since January 2023. On 1 September Germany named Russia as responsible for the attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle airport in August, and on 29 September Estonia blamed Russian security services for an arson attack on a defence firm in Tallinn.

Ground gives an armed movement its first weight. Hamas has held Gaza’s streets since 2007, and the UN agency’s local staff work on its terms, as DURCHD8’s study of the arrangement describes. Sponsors add money and arms. Iran’s support for Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah is on the public record, and the study of the Gaza deadlock reads it as sponsorship and transfer of capability, short of command. States also hire. Russia’s services recruit young people, petty criminals and members of diasporas over Telegram, pay them in cryptocurrency and keep the state’s name off the act. A state that leans on a private army can be shaken by it, as the Wagner mutiny of June 2023 showed.

Meaning is the oldest source. Bin Laden, DURCHD8’s foundational text says, struck the symbol of an empire, and the shock made others see meaning in him, from which he drew recruits, money and allegiance. Hamas called its July decision to dissolve its government a positive step, and an Israeli official called it spin with no significance, saying all its members stayed in their posts. What others see in such an actor opens doors to it or closes them, from a host in Moscow to a sanctions list in Brussels.

Who holds the street decides daily life for civilians. About two million people in Gaza live under an armed movement that ties its heavy weapons to statehood, and under the strikes aimed at it. In the West Bank whole communities have been driven out by settler violence. In Europe the danger is quieter. A teenager paid in cryptocurrency can set a depot alight, and weeks pass before a government names the state behind him. In Berlin a left-wing extremist group claimed the arson on the power grid in January 2026, and police called the rumours of a Russian hand false. Every attack invites a reading before the facts are in.

How long can a government wait before naming the state behind a hired arsonist, and what does it lose by naming one too early?

Around Gaza the Palestine, Israel and UNRWA dossiers and the UNRWA Foundation case show a crowded field. Hamas holds the ground outside Israeli control and talks through Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye. Israel fights it. The plan the Security Council endorsed requires its disarmament. The EU lists members of its political bureau and, on the same day, Israeli settler organisations. Russia received Hamas leaders in Moscow in October 2023 and defends the UN agency at little cost to itself, as DURCHD8’s study of the Gaza deadlock records. Iran has financed and armed Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, and since February it has been at war with Israel and the United States.

In Europe the Russia dossier, the case on Russia’s information governance and the Hybrid Warfare case show Russia’s services working through hired hands and informal networks of the Internet Research Agency type. DURCHD8’s Poland study counts 21 per cent of all documented Russian sabotage in Europe on Polish soil. The Narrative Warfare Foundation case begins with the one man without a state who shook a world power. The weight differs widely: Hamas holds a territory and two million people, a hired arsonist a single night’s work.

DURCHD8’s studies meet non-state actors at the edges of their main subjects. North 1990: Structural Complementarity in Gaza sets Hamas beside the UN relief agency in Gaza’s daily life, and its full version names the disarmament of the armed wing as the test of its finding. The Gaza Deadlock Under Great Power Competition documents Iran’s support for Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah and the talks Russian diplomats held with Hamas leaders in Moscow in October 2023. It reads both as sponsorship short of command. Russia Governs Information as a State Function and Poland: Two States, One Republic follow the men and teenagers recruited over Telegram for arson in Leipzig, Birmingham and Warsaw. NATO Consensus as Ceremony reads the Wagner mutiny of 2023 as the sudden break that order imposed from above risks. Humans: Narrative Warfare, Plain and Precise tells how one man without a state drew recruits, money and allegiance from the meaning others saw in him.

Attribution is the test they share: for each act, who armed, paid or hired the hand, and how long it took to say so.